Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
For the monthly period ending March 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $140.07 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.6% from the $139.17 we now measure for February 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $137.72, with a 90% confidence range of $134.97 to $140.47. Pricing over the last 29 days has been stronger than expected but stayed within the upper bound of our 90% confidence range.
On March 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $143.01,1.7% above the reading for February 15. Among those pending listings we have 92.0% normal, 2.9% in REOs and 5.0% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The percentage of distressed transactions continues to fall and the fall has accelerated over the last month.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on April 15 is $142.59,which is 1.8% higher than the March 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $139.74 to $145.44.
In most years, prices make strong progress between March and June so it is not unusual that we predict a significant increase for April. The Cromford® Market Index has stabilized and there is now a strong upward trend in pricing for homes under $250,000 balanced by a weak downward trend for homes over $500,000. The overall price averages will depend on the mix of sales that are closed over the next 31 days.
Author:Tom LaMendola Phone: 602-885-4010 Dated: March 31st 2016 Views: 124 About Tom: ...
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