Cromford Report Mid Month June Update

Cromford Report Mid Month June Update

Mid Month Pricing Update and ForecastEach month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.For the monthly period ending June 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $141.57 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 0.3% from the $142.04 we now measure for May 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $143.93, with a 90% confidence range of $141.05 to $146.81, so last month's forecast proved to be rather too optimistic. The actual figure was still within the 90% confidence range but definitely closer to the bottom limit.On June 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $145.12,almost the same as the reading for May 15. Among those pending listings we have 92.8% normal, 2.5% in REOs and 4.7% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This too is little changed from last month.Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on July 15 is $141.50,which is just 7 cents below the June 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $138.67 to $144.33.Last month we said we expect a retreat to occur between June 15 and September 15, because this is a seasonal pattern that occurs almost every year. I guess we are now saying that retreat will probably start in the second half of July.


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Phone: 602-885-4010
Dated: July 1st 2016
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