Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
For the monthly period ending December 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $138.06 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 1.7% above the $135.76 we now measure for November 15. Our forecast range was $132.84 to $138.26 with a mid-point of $135.55. The actual result did lie within our forecast range, but very much towards the high end this time.
On December 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $141.12,1.9% above the reading for November 15. Among those pending listings we have 88.6% normal, 4.2% in REOs and 7.2% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This has barely changed from this time last month
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on January 15 is $140.72,which is 1.9% higher than the December 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $137.91 to $143.53.
The last two months have given us actual readings well above the midpoint for the forecast. Our forecast calls for another strong advance for the third month in a row. However we note that January tends to be a weak month for pricing while December often surprises to the upside. It would not surprise us if this year follows the usual pattern.
Author:Tom LaMendola Phone: 602-885-4010 Dated: January 1st 2016 Views: 380 About Tom: ...
Report by Ricky KhamisRealtor Report2016 Best Year for Housing in a De
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